Forecasting Supply and Demand in Radiology in 2055
Reviewing current and emerging trends in imaging utilization and the impact of attrition rates and radiology residency positions on the field, researchers explore the future of radiology with two new provocative studies.
Researchers estimate a nearly 27 percent increase in imaging utilization over the next 30 years. However, if current attrition rates in the radiology field persist without growth in radiology residency positions, the same researchers suggest the radiology workforce will be “substantially smaller” than it is now.
In two new studies, recently published in the Journal of the American College of Radiology, researchers offer projections on future imaging utilization and the state of the radiology workforce based on different scenarios of residency position growth or lack thereof, and attrition rates.
Here are seven key takeaways from the studies.
- Assuming no growth in radiology residency positions after 2024, the study authors projected a 25.7 percent increase in the number of radiologists providing care for Medicare beneficiaries in 2055. However, if there is radiology residency growth at the rate of historical trends, the researchers estimated a 40.3 percent growth of the radiology workforce serving Medicare patients from 2023 to 2055.1
- The researchers projected a 25.1 percent growth in computed tomography (CT) utilization over the next 30 years, noting that 17.1 of the increase is attributable to population growth estimates and 6.2 percent derived from expected aging of the population.2
Incorporating imaging utilization rates from 2022 with projected trends in the United States population, the researchers forecasted a 25.1 percent increase in computed tomography (CT) scans, a 26.9 percent increase in nuclear medicine utilization by 2055 along with a 17.8 percent growth in X-rays, a 17.3 percent growth in ultrasound use and a 16.9 percent increase in magnetic resonance imaging (MRI).
3. Noting studies that revealed higher number of health-care providers seeking to reduce work hours or leave their practice altogether, and a 63 percent burnout rate in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, the researchers pointed out a 3 percent post-COVID-19 attrition rate for radiologists compared to 1.9 percent prior to the pandemic.1
4. Incorporating imaging utilization rates from 2022 with projected trends in the United States population, the researchers forecasted a 26.9 percent increase in nuclear medicine utilization by 2055 along with a 17.8 percent growth in X-rays, a 17.3 percent growth in ultrasound use and a 16.9 percent increase in magnetic resonance imaging (MRI).2
5. For the first two years of a five-year process with the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) adding 200 new residency positions a year in health care, the study authors noted that radiology accounted for a total of 16.9 new residency positions in the last two years.1
6. While noting that imaging utilization per person is “substantially higher” for Medicare fee for service, the researchers pointed out current trends with beneficiaries preferring Medicare advantage. Between 2023 and 2055, the study authors forecasted a 70.7 percent increase in patients using Medicare Advantage in contrast to an 8.9 percent increase in Medicare fee for service plans.2
7. If attrition in radiology persists at post-COVID-19 levels, the researchers estimated a 20.9 percent growth in the radiology workforce by 2055. If attrition decreases back to pre-COVID-19 rates, the study authors forecast a 29.2 percent increase in the radiology workforce.1
References
1. Christensen EW, Parikh JR, Drake AR, Rubin EM, Rula EY. Projected US radiologist supply, 2025 to 2055. J Am Coll Radiol. 2025;22(2):161-169.
2. Christensen EW, Drake AR, Parikh JR, Rubin EM, Rula EY. Projected US imaging utilization, 2025-2055. J Am Coll Radiol. 2025;22(2):151-158.
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